Monthly Archives: April 2013

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buy canada goose jacket cheap Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. buy canada goose jacket cheap

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canada goose canada goose online clearance LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 16 (Reuters) The decline in China implied oil canada goose factory sale use in April to an 8 month low, coupled with flat crude imports, gives canada goose uk outlet the canada goose clearance impression of weak demand, but the numbers aren telling the whole buy canada goose jacket cheap story. canada goose clearance

Canada Goose Jackets The Canada Goose sale International Energy Agency forecast in its medium term oil market report that Chinese oil demand would rise about 4.1 percent, or 397,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 9.976 million bpd in 2013 from the previous year. Canada Goose Jackets

canada goose coats on sale That is cheap canada goose uk down from the 4.2 percent growth rate in 2012 and canadian goose jacket 6.3 percent in 2011, and the IEA forecast seems reasonable in the light of slower economic growth and efforts by China, the world No.2 crude consumer, to become more energy efficient. canada goose coats on sale

But even the IEA modest growth forecast looks optimistic in the Canada Goose online light of recent data, which seems to show growth in Chinese oil demand stalling.

Canada Goose online Implied oil demand was 9.6 million bpd in April, down from March 9.72 million and well below cheap Canada Goose the record 10.9 million bpd from December last year. Canada Goose online

The problem is this: canada goose coats on sale Does anybody really believe that China is using 1.3 million bpd less oil now than it did four months ago?

canada goose store That clearly ridiculous and canada goose store means that other factors must be at work. canada goose store

Implied demand is calculated by taking the amount of crude refined and adding net imports of refined products, but excludes changes in inventories, which are seldom disclosed by the government.

And it with inventories that the discrepancies arise, as it now appears that Chinese refiners have been Canada Goose Parka running down inventories and undertaking maintenance at plants in the last couple of months, thereby depressing the oil demand numbers.

Canada Goose sale Another point worth making is that even though canada goose clearance sale the implied demand numbers have fallen every month so far in 2013, the average is still 9.97 million bpd, exactly in line with the IEA forecast for the whole year. Canada Goose sale

canada goose deals The question is whether the declining trend is about to halt and reverse, or whether it will continue. canada goose deals

While the current month may still show some softness given ongoing refinery maintenance, the likelihood is that demand will start to increase from June onwards.

canada goose This is because the seasonal summer peak sees more people take to the roads, and construction activity tends to pick up as well, thereby increasing demand for both gasoline and diesel. canada goose

While the government doesn provide inventory levels, official data did show that commercial inventories of refined products dropped canada goose uk black friday 1.8 canada goose uk shop percent in March from a month earlier, Canada Goose Online and indications buy canada goose jacket are that they declined even further Canada Goose Outlet in April.

Thus refiners may have to boost runs in order to rebuild inventories in coming months, and the May 10 increase in retail fuel prices will also encourage higher throughput.

Canada Goose Parka This means that crude imports are also likely to start increasing, assuming domestic output remains largely steady around the 4.1 million bpd level. Canada Goose Parka

For the first four months of this year, crude imports have averaged 5.59 million bpd, uk canada goose outlet which is slightly below the 5.6 million they averaged canada goose black friday sale for the same canada goose coats period last canada goose year.

However, in the first half of 2012, China crude imports were boosted by the filling of strategic stockpiles, which soaked up as much as 400,000 bpd in the first six months.

canada goose coats This means that growth in actual demand is probably faster than that in implied demand. However, actual demand can be calculated because of the missing inventory data. canada goose coats

canadian goose jacket To meet the IEA forecast of oil demand of 9.976 million bpd in 2013, and once again assuming steady domestic crude output, imports of crude and net refined products will have to be about 5.87 million bpd on Canada Goose Coats On Sale average this year. canadian goose jacket

canada goose clearance sale So far this year, these two combined have averaged uk canada goose 5.855 million bpd, given crude imports of 5.59 million bpd and net product imports about 265,000 bpd in the first four months. canada goose clearance sale

This means that so far China is more or less on track, but as always the joker in the pack is inventories.

Assuming that no strategic storage is likely to be filled this year, and commercial inventories are kept largely steady, the chances are that crude imports will average around the 5.6 5.7 million bpd level for the rest of the year.

cheap Canada Goose However, China is also expected to add about 500,000 bpd of refining capacity in 2013, Canada Goose Jackets mainly in the second half, and this could boost crude imports as inventories for the new units are established. cheap Canada Goose

Given the slower growth in domestic fuel consumption, it also likely that any increased crude imports will result in higher exports of refined products, thereby reducing the net fuel import component of China oil demand.

Canada Goose Outlet But rather than increase crude imports in order to boost fuel exports, Chinese refiners may run units at lower utilisation rates while waiting for domestic demand to increase to match capacity. (Editing by Joseph Radford) Canada Goose Outlet.

Perhaps no subject is less understood by the public and the

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